Liputan6.com, Jakarta - NASA Van Allen Probe A, one of two twin spacecraft launched to study Earth's radiation belts, is projected to return to our planet's atmosphere on or around March 10, 2026.
The 1,323-pound (about 600-kilogram) probe ended its mission in 2019 after running out of fuel, and its return journey to Earth is now being accelerated by intense solar activity.
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The Van Allen Probes' primary mission is to unravel the mysteries of the Van Allen belts, rings of charged particles that protect Earth from cosmic radiation, solar storms, and solar wind.
Although originally designed for two years, both probes exceeded expectations by operating for nearly seven years, providing valuable data through October 2019 for Probe A and July 2019 for Probe B.
However, NASA emphasizes that the risk of harm to anyone on Earth is extremely low, with the chance of injury being approximately 1 in 4,200, or 0.02 percent, given that most of Earth's surface is ocean.
The Critical Mission of the Van Allen Probes and Earth's Radiation Belts
Van Allen Probe A was launched in August 2012 along with its twin, Van Allen Probe B, as part of NASA's effort to better understand Earth's permanent radiation belts.
The Van Allen Belts are a vital natural phenomenon, acting as a protective shield that traps charged particles and prevents them from reaching our planet's surface.
These two NASA spacecraft were designed to collect data on the dynamics of the radiation belts, which is crucial for predicting and mitigating the impacts of space weather.
The information gathered from these missions has helped scientists measure and predict the effects of solar wind and radiation on communication systems, navigation satellites, power grids, and even the safety of astronauts in space.
Although the initial mission was only two years, the Van Allen Probes' exceptional endurance and performance allowed them to continue collecting data for nearly seven years.
End of Mission and Accelerated Return to Earth
The Van Allen Probes' mission officially ended in 2019. By then, the probes had exhausted their fuel and were no longer able to point their solar panels toward the sun for recharging.
This termination marked a new phase in the life cycle of these NASA satellites.
Initially, NASA scientists estimated that Van Allen Probe A would re-enter Earth's atmosphere around 2032 or 2034.
However, the current active solar cycle, which has proven to be much more intense than expected, has significantly changed that projection.
Intense space weather events caused by high solar activity have increased atmospheric drag on spacecraft, including Van Allen Probe A.
This has drastically accelerated the satellite's descent, forcing it to return to Earth earlier than originally scheduled.
Meanwhile, Van Allen Probe B is not expected to return to Earth's atmosphere until sometime in the 2030s.
NASA's Re-entry Details and Projected Time
Van Allen Probe A is expected to re-enter Earth's atmosphere on or around March 10, 2026.
This projected re-entry time has been a focus of attention among space experts.
The U.S. Space Force estimates re-entry will likely occur at 12:03 a.m. Eastern Time (ET) on Wednesday (March 11), although NASA previously projected around 7:45 p.m. ET on Tuesday (March 10).
It's important to note that there's a 24-hour margin of uncertainty in this estimated re-entry time, meaning the exact time could shift slightly.
Most components of this NASA satellite are expected to burn up upon impact with Earth's atmosphere.
However, it's possible some more heat-resistant components could survive and reach the surface.
NASA did not provide specific details regarding the exact re-entry location or trajectory.
Extremely Low Risk and Public Safety
While there is a possibility that some parts of the Van Allen Probe A satellite could reach Earth's surface, NASA has assured the public that the risk to the public is extremely low.
The risk of harm to anyone on Earth is estimated at only about 1 in 4,200, or approximately 0.02 percent.
This low risk calculation is based on the geographic fact that approximately 70% of Earth's surface is covered by water.
Therefore, if any components survive re-entry, they will most likely fall in open ocean areas, far from populated areas or major cities.